Garmin only recently launched the base Garmin Fenix 8 on August 27.

Leaks suggest that a surprise Garmin Fenix 8 MicroLED edition might arrive relatively soon. We've heard rumors for years that most major smartwatch makers want to replace OLED displays with MicroLEDs, so Garmin launching theirs before Apple and Samsung would be a major coup.

If this leak is accurate, the timing could royally piss off Garmin Fenix 8 buyers. But the evidence suggests Garmin won't pull off this win so easily.

Gadgets & Wearables posted a screenshot of a list of "compatible devices" for developers making new Garmin watch faces. The list includes all recent Garmin AMOLED watches, but it has one exception: the "Garmin fēnix 8 MicroLED." It also includes another unannounced watch, the Garmin Tactix 8 AMOLED, which would ship in 47mm and 51mm case sizes.

Last month, Gadgets & Wearables posted another alleged leak, showing the Garmin Connect app page that appears when you add a new device. The list includes the Garmin Fenix 8 MicroLED and the Fenix 8 Pro 47mm / 51mm. Those devices don't appear in the current app version, but they may have been removed.

MicroLED supplier Vuzix announced a partnership with Garmin in May 2024 for a "next generation nano-imprinted waveguide-based display system" with MicroLED tech, but waveguide displays are specifically for transparent lenses like the ones in its Vuzix Shield AR glasses. Garmin makes several products for truck drivers, and AR glasses with directional tech would fit that description better.

It's possible that Vuzix would pull double duty and make MicroLED display tech for Garmin watches. We simply have no evidence that's the company's area of expertise, or that Garmin has another MicroLED partner to use.

MicroLED display tech is meant to match or beat the visual quality and brightness of an AMOLED display without needing a backlight. Garmin watches are beloved for their long battery life, but the company's pivot from battery-saving MIP to brighter AMOLEDs is controversial with long-time users. MicroLED probably wouldn't come close to MIP for efficiency, but it would bridge the longevity gap.

First, the positives: If (and it's a big if) Garmin is selling a MicroLED watch this year or next, it would be at a pace that will make Apple and Samsung jealous.

Samsung allegedly "started to commercialize MicroLED technology for smartwatches" in 2023 according to SamMobile, with "hopes to complete the development within this year." Then another report suggested Samsung wanted to use a MicroLED display in the Galaxy Watch Ultra in 2024.

Either the reports were false or Samsung realized it couldn't affordably insert the tech into its watches yet. It does sell MicroLED TVs...that cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. The Galaxy Watch Ultra is already expensive enough with its current display, and the 2025 Galaxy Watch 8 should stick to AMOLED.

We've also heard competing rumors for years about Apple's MicroLED plans. After analysts claimed it would arrive in 2024 or 2025, Bloomberg reported that Apple gave up on its MicroLED plans for the Apple Watch in March 2024. Just this week, however, Appleinsider claimed that Apple intends to sell a microLED Ultra watch in 2026. The reports make Apple sound indecisive about the idea.

Google bought MicroLED supplier Raxium in 2022, with the assumption that it would use the tech for AR glasses -- possibly the Project Astra AR glasses we saw at Google I/O 2024. But in theory, Google could follow in Samsung's footsteps and use MicroLED displays in a Pixel Watch.

The through line here is that big tech brands see MicroLED as the future of smartwatch and AR glasses display tech, but are having trouble implementing it quickly. If Vuzix had product-ready MicroLED tech for Garmin watches less than a year after its announced partnership, that would be unusually fast.

Let's ignore the industry evidence that MicroLED probably isn't ready for any smartwatch, and that if Garmin were to sell a Fenix 8 MicroLED, it would probably be prohibitively expensive, maybe on par with its luxury MARQ watches that cost $2-3,000.

Suppose Garmin really did pull off a coup and sells a new Fenix 8 MicroLED soon. The timing would be brutal to everyone who spent anywhere from $999 to $1,199 on a brand-new AMOLED watch, not realizing there'd be an even better option a few months away. (I assume the Fenix 8 MIP Solar buyers won't mind as much.)

This would also apply if the leaked Fenix 8 Pro arrives soon, since Garmin usually waits a year between a base Fenix and its mid-cycle refresh. If you're spending that much on a watch, you want to feel like you have the best possible option with every new software feature for a year or more, not a few months.

Aside from a few minor launches like the Lily 2 Active, we probably won't see any more major Garmin launches in 2024. But a spring 2025 launch of any new Garmin Fenix 8 would raise eyebrows and generate FOMO in Garmin's biggest spenders.

But I'll return to my original point: Whether or not Garmin plans to sell a Fenix 8 MicroLED, I'm skeptical it can pull it off quickly. And as a Fenix 8 owner, I'd have some complicated emotions if Garmin bucks expectations.