I'm now going to break these 10 down into two tiers to make this a little more easily digestible: The guys you know and the breakout stars.
Let's start with the names you should be familiar with at this point. Either from hype this season or from long-time scouting eyes.
Jalen Milroe, Alabama:
Milroe is as well known a name as any this draft class. He's an athletic freak who'll likely be among the fastest NFL QBs ever once he is drafted in April. As recent draft picks have shown that speed will bail him out of a lot of early issues. Whether it's a poor offensive line, slow reading a defense, or perhaps his team simply wants to focus on running the ball. Milroe will have the advantage of his superior athletic ability that nobody else in this draft class can match.
However, athletic ability can only get you so far. Milroe has already thrown 6 INTs this season and struggles in the intermediate part of the field. On passes between 10-19 yards in the air to the left sideline or over the middle Milroe is just 24/40 with 2 INTs and 0 TDs.
Milroe also creates his own pressure. He's credited with allowing 15.5% of the pressure he's faced, including 6 of his 16 sacks. That said, I am intrigued by Milroe's 2.67 seconds to pass attempt. That's a decent number, and if he can maintain something close to that in the NFL we could see those pressure numbers dip.
All of this is to say. Milroe is a good fit for a system that will take advantage of his legs and his willingness to take what defenses are giving him. He's not going to throw you to many wins, at least initially, but the basics are there if you're looking for an uber talented QB that's going to need time. QBs with his tools don't tend to last long. He's currently slated to go towards the end of the first, but we'll see where he ends up after the Combine.
Quinn Ewers, Texas:
Ewers has been on the NFL's radar since he was in high school. A former 5-Star and the top recruit in his class, Ewers has had huge expectations on him since he stepped foot on an NCAA field. He's never lived up to those expectations, but he is a talent QB in his own right.
Ewers is a lot like Bo Nix last year. He's a dominant passer underneath. 68% of Ewers pass attempts this year are 9 air yards or less. If not for 7 drops on those passes, Ewers would have a completion percentage around 90% on those passes. That ability to keep a team on time and in rhythm is incredibly important.
That said, like with Nix, it is incredibly limiting. Ewers has an ADOT of 5.9 this season. Only 2 QBs have ever been drafted with an ADOT under 6, one is Nix last year and the other is Gardner Minshew. QBs who are very understandably called game managers. Some will point to the Broncos success to that doesn't matter with Nix, but I'd point out that Nix has a completion percentage of 39.1% on passes of 10+ air yards, which is obviously not sustainable.
With Ewers appearing to be in the same vein of QB people are going to be very split on him. Some will love his high accuracy and ability to keep his team on time. Others will point to his inability to create big plays and point to a game manager ceiling. He's currently listed as QB3 in this class and a potential top-10 pick in large part to the success of Texas the last two years. The expanded college football playoffs will be a good place to see how true the game manager allegations are for Ewers.
Carson Beck, Georgia:
Beck is another former high school 5 star quarterback. The talent with him was evident in 2023. The Georgia offense was balanced in their passing attack taking shots and going underneath. It didn't matter Beck was dominant at all levels. However, as some of the talent at Georgia has gone to the NFL Beck hasn't had the same level of success.
This season Beck has seen his adjusted completion percentage on passes of 10+ air yards fall off a cliff. Perhaps scarier though, Beck has already thrown more INTs this year than he did last year. That brings major questions about how Beck would do in the NFL without a massive talent advantage.
On the one hand, he has a 50% adjusted completion percentage this year on passes of 20+ air yards, to go along with 6 TDs and only 1 INT. On the other, he has 7 INTs on passes under 19 yards. That leads me to believe that it's not a talent question it's a mental issue, as in a poor football IQ.
The issue for Beck is that there are just more intriguing QBs in this class if a team wants an top-teir developmental QB. That's why most now have Beck falling out of the first round. Like Ewers though, Beck will get a chance to turn that narrative around thanks to the new playoffs.
Riley Leonard, Notre Dame:
It seems like the 5th year that Leonard's name has been bandied about as a potential high draft pick in the NFL draft. The former Duke quarterback has transferred to Notre Dame after a down year in 2023. He's bounced back to his usual level of play in 2024. That's vaulted him back up boards in a weak QB class.
Since his time at Duke Leonard has been comped to Daniel Jones, and that still holds true now. Leonard is an exception athlete at his size, having run for over 560 yards already this season. At his size, that's incredible.
The issue for Leonard is that he's never shown much as a passer. He hasn't helped that this year. He's been mediocre to bad on passes of 10+ air yards. Even his short passes, 0-9 yards, a completion percentage under 80%. He has just 8 passing TDs.
Leonard will be drafted this year, but how high is going to be determined by how teams view him as a passer. Athletically he's among the best in the class, as a passer he's just mediocre for college football let alone the NFL. But still at just 22 years old perhaps a team thinks they'll be able to unlock Leonard's potential the same way the Giants thought they could unlock Daniel Jones.
Drew Allar, Penn State:
If you haven't heard of Allar you've been living under a college football rock for the last 3 years. Ever since his freshman year Allar has been hailed as the next great Penn State QB. He wowed scouts with his arm talent and athletic ability. He just never broke out though, he's made improvements, but they've been minimal. He's never won the big games either, as evidenced by his winless record against Ohio State.
That said, the underlying numbers for Allar show a very good college QB. This season he has an adjusted completion percentage on passes of 20+ air yards of 55.6%. His adjusted completion percentage on 10-19 yards is 70.9%. Considering he's not playing with a top-3 round WR this year, that's wildly impressive.
Pair that with a 2.57 seconds yard per attempt and you have a QB who can clearly read a defense, despite some mediocre INT numbers for an elite QB. Now, that said Allar does trust himself a little too much, 20.4% of his pressures faced are his own fault. Do you take lack of pocket awareness in exchange for an ability to read a defense down field?
The other part here is that Allar is a very good runner. His numbers this year don't show it, but he had over 300 yards in 2023.
Allar's big issue is that he shrinks in big games every single time. He did it again just today against Ohio State. Perhaps no QB in this entire draft class could benefit more from the new playoffs. If he shows out, Allar's stock could skyrocket, if he shrinks again he may not even be a first round pick.
Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss:
Remember when Jaxson Dart was a star Freshman QB for USC? Yeah neither does anybody else because Caleb Williams replaced him the next year when Lincoln Riley came in.
Now 21 years old, Dart is in his 3rd year as a starter for Ole Miss. Dart has shown vast improvements each year. In his first year with Ole Miss he relied heavily on his athleticism rushing for over 600 yards, but struggling as a passer. In year 2 he completed just over 65% of his passes, threw only 5 INTs and averaged over 9 yards per pass attempt. This year Dart is averaging over 12 yards per pass attempt!!!! He has 15 TDs to just 3 INTs, oh and his completion percentage has gone up 5 points to 70.6%.
His adjusted completion percentage on passes of 10+ air yards is a wild 58.3%, in the 10-19 yard range it's 77.4%. And here's the key, those passes of 10+ air yards make up 43.9% of his total passes, most among the QBs on this list.
Dart is a guy that people have talked about for 4 years now just waiting for his breakout, and it's come in a big way this year. It's just being ignored because Ole Miss, 6-1, is outside the college football playoffs right now. Something caused by things out of his control, a missed game-tying field goal and a 25 yard TD allowed on the first play of overtime by his defense.
Dart's name is surely going to shoot up draft boards as we get closer to the end of the season. Will he end up a top-10 pick? Probably not, which could leave him in range for the Jets.
We saw a 28-year-old Brandon Weeden go in the first round, so why not a soon to be 26 year old Tyler Shough? Alright, it's not likely, but he's had an unbelievable season that needs to be addressed here.
Shough has thrown 20 TDs to just 5 INTs for Louisville, a team that hasn't thrown the ball in my lifetime. This is the first chance Shough has really gotten to be the full-time starter after transferring from school to school hoping to get a chance. After 3 years at both Oregon and Texas Tech, Shough is finally living his dream as a 7th year QB.
Yes, he is nearly 26. There's no way around that. But Shough has the raw tools to succeed. The guy threw for a combined 7 TDs and only 1 INT against Miami and Notre Dame, 2 top-10 teams.
That said, he's not the most athletic, and again he's almost 26. He's one of the great stories of college football this year. And maybe he gets a shot on Day 2 or Day 3. He's not the guy in the mid-first round despite his phenomenal season though.
Will Howard, Ohio State:
Maybe you'd heard of Howard during his time at Kansas State, but the it wouldn't be a surprise if you didn't. He was an okay quarterback for a decent team. This year he was one of the best transfer QBs available in a weak transfer class and Ohio State acted quickly after losing out on Cam Ward.
Howard has rewarded the Buckeyes by developing into one of the best quarterbacks in college football. He's completed 74% of his passes. He's thrown for 19 TDs and only 5 INTs. The underlying numbers aren't as impressive very average compared to the rest of this class in adjusted completion percentage and depth of target. That points to his development potentially being driven by the talent around him, but you can't say that for sure.
Howard is also decently athletic, he hasn't shown it much this season, but rushed for over 300 yards in two seasons in his college career.
It should also be noted as far as big games go, Howard threw for over 300 yards and 3 TDs against Oregon. He also just beat Penn State with 2 TDs and 1 INT. He also beat a top-4 team in TCU to win the Big-12 championship in 2022.
He's not exciting, very average athletically, his arm is very average, and his advanced analytics are average. But he's having a breakout season for a team that's likely to compete for a national title this year. He's going to get more chances to display why his stock should be rising. That shouldn't be underrated.
Cade Klubnik, Clemson:
Let's start this out with the obvious. Cade Klubnik very well may not be in this draft class. He's a true junior and a second year full-time starter. Yes, he's improved this year, but not to the point he's at the top of this class. It's unlikely he'll end up in the conversation for a top-5 pick this year. He has every incentive to return to Clemson.
That said, let's talk about him just in case. Klubnik has been a marvel for Clemson. He has 20 TDs to just 3 INTs. His adjusted completion numbers are great at all levels, though his short passing isn't ideal at under 80%. He's also shown to be an exception athlete as a runner, as he's likely to exceed 300 and maybe even 400 yards rushing this season.
Now, why isn't he higher on draft boards if this is the case? Well, it's the level of competition. Clemson hasn't played anyone this year. Georgia was their best opponent this year and they held Klubnik to 142 yards passing 0 TDs, 1 INT, and -17 rushing yards.
Now, Clemson may get into the playoffs this year, which would provide Klubnik a change to show he can beat elite talent. That could change everything. But for now, he's simply having a great season on one of the most talented teams in college football playing almost nobody. Which is why he might go back for another year.
Kurtis Rourke, Indiana:
So you may have heard that Indiana is pretty good this year. The Hoosiers have been one of the biggest surprises in college football this season, and look potentially playoff bound. At the very least it looks like they may very well have a shot to win the Big-TEN. That's crazy for a team that hasn't won a solo Big-TEN title since 1945. If you want to know why? Look no further than Kurtis Rourke.
Rourke has thrown 19 TDs to just 3 INTs. He's averaging over 10 yards per pass attempt. Most impressively though, he leads the NCAA in QBR. This is a guy who spent 5 years at Ohio, the last 3 of which as a starter. His adjusted completion percentages are elite to every level of the field.
He's not the most athletic, as he's bulked up as he's aged. His rushing totals have decreased every year, but he's offset that with an increasingly strong arm.
The biggest issue with believing in Rourke is that he's already 24 years old. As a 6 year college player without a history of playing at this level you have to question how real the development is. But in a weak QB class, a breakout season leading a shocking team to the playoffs to play against the elite teams in the NCAA could be enough to get him to sneak into the first round. For a team looking a QB that wouldn't have a massive learning curve and development, perhaps Rourke is their guy.