At least Florida had a whole three weeks to recover from the last storm this time.
Tropical Depression Eighteen formed in the Caribbean Monday morning and is expected to become Tropical Storm Rafael later the same day, according to forecasters with the National Hurricane Center. The storm is forecast to be a hurricane by Tuesday night before it enters the Gulf of Mexico.
Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States during mid to late week, forecasters said. Hazardous marine conditions, large, breaking waves in the surf zone and a high risk of rip currents are expected along most of Florida's coast throughout most of the week.
Most early models are showing the storm moving northwest toward Alabama, Louisiana or even Texas after it drenches Jamaica and Cuba. But even with the current path, Florida will still get a piece of it
However, a dip in the jet stream could pull the storm closer to South Florida, forecasters said. Hurricane strikes in November remain rare, but they do happen.
The western Caribbean will see the heaviest rainfall over Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week with 3 to 6 inches expected, and up to 9 inches in some areas, with potential for flooding and mudslides. The Cayman Islands is under a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica.
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Many Floridians are still dealing with the aftermath of the widespread flooding and wind-damaged or destroyed buildings and homes from the devastating one-two punch of hurricanes Helene and Milton. Massive piles of debris and chainsawed trees can be seen in front of houses waiting for pickup nearly a month after Milton swept across the state in October.
The next names in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season are Rafael and Sara.
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The Caribbean waters are warm enough for tropical development, even this late in the season. The system is expected to become a tropical depression soon, the NHC said and develop into a hurricane.
Where it goes depends on the wind shear, or disruptive breezes, that have been keeping tropical development low the last few weeks, and a dip in the jet stream over a thousand miles away.
"If that jet stream dip pushes far enough to the east, it will tend to scoop up the tropical feature and possibly draw it across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and into South Florida," AccuWeather meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. "But, if the jet stream dip lags to the west, the tropical feature may push into the western or central Gulf of Mexico, where it could threaten areas as far to the west as Louisiana or Texas.
"There's also the possibility it continues due westward and diminishes over southern Mexico," he said.
At 10 a.m. EST, the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 76.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph. A northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and forecast to continue for the next few days.
On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica tonight, be near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by Wednesday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
Accuweather
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WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon and are possible in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by this evening and are possible in central Cuba on Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible.
Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States during mid- to late week.
STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.
SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days.
The storm's current track means western Polk County has very a small chance of tropical storm force winds. That could change if the track shifts farther to the east. According to the National Weather Service in Tampa, Polk's rain chances this week range from 20% on Monday to 60% on Wednesday, with low temperatures in the low 70s and highs in the mid-80s.
Monday: A 20% chance of showers after 3 p.m. Sunny, with a high near 84. East wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Monday night: A slight chance of showers between 9 p.m. and 11 p.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. East wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tuesday: A 30% chance of showers after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Breezy, with an east wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
Tuesday Night: A 30% chance of showers, mainly before 1 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. East wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
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Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. East wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Night: A 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. East wind 11 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Thursday: A 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. East southeast wind 11 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Thursday Night: A 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. East southeast wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 84. East southeast wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Here are the latest watches and warnings issued for areas threatened by Potential Tropical Storm Eighteen:
Hurricane Warning:
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Hurricane Watch:
Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical Storm Warning:
Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Tropical Storm Watch:
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
No watches or warnings have been issued for Florida at this time.
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
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