Can the Steelers remain dominant against the spread as underdogs? / Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
The AFC North title is on the line on Saturday afternoon, as the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) hit the road to play the Baltimore Ravens (9-5).
Pittsburgh won the first matchup in this season series, 18-16 in Pittsburgh, but it is coming off a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 15 that allowed the Ravens right back into the division race.
Lamar Jackson (34 passing scores this season) has been dominant in the 2024 season, throwing for five more touchdowns in Baltimore's blowout win over the New York Giants last week.
Both of these teams are on a short week with this game being played on Saturday, and they'll have a quick turnaround after this - playing on Christmas Day.
Oddsmakers have favored the Ravens in this game, but the Steelers have the second-best record in the NFL against the spread - and the best ATS record as underdogs since Mike Tomlin took over in the 2007 season.
Does that help them pull off an upset and lock up the AFC North? A loss would make the last two weeks of the season very interesting when it comes to this division race.
Here's a full breakdown of the odds, players to watch, key betting trends and my prediction for this Week 16 clash.
Russell Wilson: The Ravens have been a poor passing defense all season long, but they held Wilson in check earlier this season, limiting him to 205 passing yards and one pick in a loss. Pittsburgh scored just 18 points to win that game, and Wilson has struggled as of late, failing to throw for 200 yards in back-to-back contests. He'll need to be better for the Steelers to pull off an upset on Saturday.
Lamar Jackson: For the second straight season, Jackson leads the NFL in yards per carry, and he's thrown an insane 34 scores to just three picks - by far his passing season of his NFL career. He's now the No. 2 choice to win the league's MVP award behind Josh Allen.
I think Baltimore will end up winning this game, especially since Wilson has struggled throwing the ball in the two games after the Steelers' 40-point outburst against Cincinnati.
However, I can't trust the Ravens to cover a spread of this margin against this Steelers group.
Pittsburgh ranks sixth in the NFL in points allowed this season, and it held this Ravens offense in check in Week 11. While TJ Watt's injury is a major concern in this matchup, I don't see a Tomlin coached group losing by more than a score given his insane record against the spread as an underdog.
Meanwhile, Baltimore has the No. 1 offense in the NFL, but it has been vulnerable through the air, allowing the second-most passing yards in the NFL. Three turnovers also cost the Ravens in the first meeting between these teams.
In a division matchup, I can't lay this many points. Pittsburgh has won the last four meetings between these teams, and every matchup dating back to Nov. 2020 has been decided by seven or fewer points on either side.
Pick: Steelers +6 (-108)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.