Hard to believe we are in the middle of October, and our sample sizes are large enough to say (in the voice of the late great Denny Green), these teams "are who we thought they were!"

Does it get easier? Well, if you know what to look for, I think it does. It was this same week last year when we began a 4-week stretch of going above .500 ATS and had a run from Weeks 6 through 9 when we were 13-7 in our best bets. (We were 15-5 in our best bets in those same weeks in 2022.)

It's my favorite time of year not only because the weather becomes perfect, but because there are usually jewels in the lines. No different this week. While Drunk Joe and Aunt Mabel will think they have easy winners, we'll show you why they are wrong and how you can be on the sharp side.

Lastly, home dogs were not only 0-9 straight up last week but 0-9 against the spread. No way that continues.

In other words, jump on the limbs and trust that the branches will hold us both! Some of these teams will be scary to bet on! Here we go ...

NOTES: All spreads, money lines and over/under totals (as of Tuesday evening) are provided by DraftKings. Home team is listed in CAPS.

WEEK 7: THE TOP 5 BEST BETS

BYES: Chicago and Dallas

1, CLEVELAND (+6.5) over Cincinnati / Sunday at noon

Let's get this out of the way and completely doom this pick: This is my best bet of the year to date. "Hey Derry, have you been sniffin the glue again? You do realize the coaching staff gave Deshaun Watson the vote of approval and they traded their best receiver to Buffalo?"

Yeah, Dippy Dip Dip, I got it. Thanks for the heads up. But we don't ignore numbers here, and here are some for you: As bad as Cleveland has been at times (we still need to remember they only lost at Philly last week by 5), my power ratings make this game Cincy -1, but the books want to make this "unteasable" for the Bengals, so they jacked up the line.

Meanwhile, not only have the Browns won nine of the past 12 games in this series straight up, but they have won six consecutive games in Cleveland, which obviously predates Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Zac Taylor.

In fact, the last time the Bengals won in Cleveland, everybody won in Cleveland, as it was part of the Browns' historic 0-16 season. This line makes no sense, and because they are making this 6.5 instead of 7, dummies will think they're getting a bargain on Cincy.

Of course, they are wrong. Thank me later.

Score: Will this be the "dream-crusher" game for Cincy? Browns 21, Bengals 20 (Total: Under 42)

2, PITTSBURGH (+1.5) over NY Jets / Sunday at 7:20 p.m.

Here's another line that doesn't make sense. We already told you in the open about how awful home dogs did last week, but no sane bettor drastically reacts to one weird week, right?

In this case, I have a "wrong team favored," as my power ratings say not only should the Steelers be favored, but by just shy of a field goal. (If we still did teasers in this space, Pittsburgh would be one of the teaser legs of the year in getting 7.5.)

Sort of surprisingly, there's not a ton of history to look back at for trends, as Pittsburgh has only faced the Jets 25 times in history and only six times the past 12 years with each team winning three. This will only be Aaron Rodgers' second-ever game in Pittsburgh, and the first time came 15 years ago in a 37-36 loss to Ben Roethlisberger in 30-degree temps.

Anyway, I am not buying the Jets at all, and the Steelers have the fourth-best rushing defense in the NFL, which will force Rodgers to go to the air.

I don't like that Mike Tomlin is talking about switching quarterbacks (especially after a win), but I have said this before: Until Pittsburgh gets to that insane back half of a schedule, I am going to back them when I can in (basically) must-wins. This one applies.

Score: Steelers 19, Jets 17 (Total: Under 38)

3, Detroit (+2.5) over MINNESOTA / Sunday at noon

I had to do a double-take and look at this line three or four times to see if "they" really had the Vikings favored by nearly a field goal.

I get Minny has overachieved and are one or two wins away from their projected win total for the season. But when did we say they are better than the defending division champs that went to the NFC title game last season and look to be a serious contender to do the same this year?

Indeed, this line says Minnesota is a ½ to 1 point better than Detroit, and that's insane. The Lions were 3½-point favorites in the preseason, have achieved their expectations and now are 2½-point dogs? Make it make sense.

Oh, and we'll repeat what we said last week: Jared Goff isn't the greatest QB in the NFL, but he's pretty good indoors. With last week's romp in Dallas, he has now won 16 of his past 20 straight up with 41 passing touchdowns to 12 interceptions.

Score: Lions 27, Vikings 21 (Total: Under 50)

4, NEW ORLEANS (+2.5) over Denver / Thursday at 7:15 p.m.

Gulp, um, say what?

Sometimes, you have to pick the jewels out of the horse manure, and that's exactly what this one is. As the casual fan doesn't understand how lines work, this is where the books win - and win big.

Drunk Joe is sitting at home saying "Sean Payton is gonna kill his former team that is ready to be sent out to pasture." I can't even call Drunk Joe crazy for thinking it, because maybe it's me who should be sent to the nut house for picking this.

But the truth is Denver is not a good football team, they just spent last Sunday getting whooped up on by an average division opponent (Chargers) on the road, and now they have to travel across the country on a short week? Gimme the team that has been at home and is licking its wounds.

Also, the Saints have been told by everyone under the sun how much they suck and all the things Payton is going to do to Dennis Allen. Well, if Allen has even one quiver left in the bag, he's going to use it here.

Oh, and just like New Orleans, the Broncos are hurting with injuries to their offensive line. I expect the Saints best effort here, and if it doesn't come ... well, I probably won't take them again in this spot this season.

Score: Saints 20, Broncos 15 (Total: Under 37)

5, ATLANTA (-3) over Seattle / Sunday at noon

I have been screaming for weeks that once the Falcons started figuring out how to play together that they would be one of the toughest teams in the NFC to stop. I am now thinking about putting some money on them to win the conference. No, seriously. Stop laughing.

One thing that isn't funny is that the Seahawks are proving to have a problem with three consecutive losses. And their defense has been pretty bad in allowing 400+ yards in back-to-back weeks.

This could be one of the more entertaining games of the week, but this line doesn't make sense and shows that the oddsmakers aren't giving Atlanta enough respect yet as a field-goal favorite against a very mediocre (at best) football team having to cross the country. (I also like the over in this one, and it might have been my sixth best bet if I had one.)

Score: Falcons 31, Seahawks 24 (Total: Over 51)

OTHER PICKS

Sunday at 8:30 a.m. in London

Jacksonville 20, New England (+5.5) 17 (Under 42.5)

NOTE: If the Jaguars lose this game, and it's very possible (NE at +195 on the ML looks tempting), Doug Pederson will have to find his own ride home because he will be unemployed before he lands back in the United States.

Sunday at noon

BUFFALO 23, Tennessee (+8.5) 17 (Under 41.5)

NOTE: UPSET ALERT. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Buffalo sort of sleepwalks through this game, but if Will Levis is starting again for Tennessee, you simply cannot bet on the Titans. This is the stayaway of all stayaway games, because the Bills have lost games like this straight up in past seasons (but Levis is awful and we have cleaned up this year betting against him). My power ratings say to take Buffalo, but I can't do it. (Lots of buts in that paragraph ...)

Miami (+3) 20, INDIANAPOLIS 19 (Under 44)

GREEN BAY 28, Houston (+3) 26 (Over 47.5)

Philadelphia (-3) 21, NY GIANTS 17 (Under 43)

Sunday at 3:05 p.m.

LA RAMS 26, Las Vegas (+7) 20 (Over 43)

WASHINGTON 30, Carolina (+7.5) 24 (Over 51.5)

Sunday at 3:25 p.m.

Kansas City (+1) 22, SAN FRANCISCO 21 (Under 47)

Monday at 7:15 p.m.

Baltimore 27, TAMPA BAY (+3.5) 24 (Over 48.5)

Monday at 8 p.m.

ARIZONA (+2.5) 25, LA Chargers 23 (Over 44)

_____________________

HOW WE DOIN?

Note: TIES ARE NOT COUNTED IN MY RECORD, which could result in a different total of games in the "straight up" and "against the spread" categories, as well as with totals.

AGAINST THE SPREAD

Week 6 best bets: 2-3; Season 15-14 (.517). Week 6 all picks: 9-5; Season 41-44 (.482).

STRAIGHT UP (no spread)

Week 6: 11-3. Season: 52-37 (.584).

OVER/UNDER TOTALS

Week 6: 10-4. Season: 43-44 (.494).

SAINTS PICKS

Week 6 pick: Bucs 23, Saints 13. (Actual: Bucs 51, Saints 27.) Straight up: W, 4-2. Against spread (Bucs -3.5): W, 3-3.

PREVIOUS COLUMNS

(click on week to view)

Week 6: 2-3 best bets; 9-5 ATS; 11-3 straight up; 10-4 over/unders

Week 5: 4-1 best bets; 5-7 ATS; 6-8 straight up; 3-11 over/unders

Week 4: 2-3 best bets; 7-7 ATS; 8-6 straight up; 7-7 over/unders

Week 3: 3-2 best bets; 9-6 ATS; 8-7 straight up; 8-7 over/unders

Week 2: 3-2 best bets; 8-8 ATS; 9-7 straight up; 8-7 over/unders

Week 1: 1-3 best bets; 3-11 ATS; 10-6 straight up; 7-8 over/unders

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