For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Marsden Maritime Holdings Limited (NZSE:MMH) shareholders, since the share price is down 44% in the last three years, falling well short of the market decline of around 1.9%.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
See our latest analysis for Marsden Maritime Holdings
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the three years that the share price fell, Marsden Maritime Holdings' earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 32% each year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 17% compound annual share price fall. So, despite the prior disappointment, shareholders must have some confidence the situation will improve, longer term.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
Dive deeper into Marsden Maritime Holdings' key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Marsden Maritime Holdings's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Marsden Maritime Holdings the TSR over the last 3 years was -38%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
Marsden Maritime Holdings shareholders are down 20% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 13%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 5% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Marsden Maritime Holdings (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on New Zealander exchanges.