Few politicians would go on record saying they wanted to slash Social Security benefits. The presidential candidates from the two major political parties in the current election are no exception. Both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have promised to "protect Social Security."
But what politicians say isn't always what they do. Could Trump's Social Security plan cut benefits by 33% instead of protecting the popular federal program? An analysis published this week by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) provides a shocking answer.
Trump has made two key proposals squarely aimed at Social Security. First, he pledged to end the taxation of Social Security benefits. Second, the former president said he would boost revenue for Social Security by increasing drilling for oil and gas in the U.S.
At first glance, those might sound like positive changes. However, CRFB determined that not taxing Social Security benefits "would eliminate a revenue stream currently used to help finance Social Security." Taxes from Social Security benefits contributed revenue of $51 billion in 2023, according to the Social Security Administration.
What about Trump's proposal to help fund Social Security through increased drilling? CRFB performed a detailed analysis of the idea. It found that "increased energy exploration is unlikely to have a meaningful effect on Social Security" and "would require unrealistically fast economic growth to close Social Security's existing long-term funding gap."
Other policies proposed by Trump could also impact Social Security, according to CRFB. The GOP presidential nominee's pledges to end all taxes on overtime pay and tips would further reduce payroll taxes used to fund Social Security. Trump's promise to deport millions of unauthorized immigrants would also likely reduce Social Security payroll taxes. His proposed steep tariffs on all imports could cause higher inflation, which would in turn increase the annual cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) and cost Social Security more money.
Trump's Social Security plan itself, which is relatively limited in scope, wouldn't cause benefit cuts of 33%. However, CRFB projects that the cumulative effect of all of his proposed policies would.
CRFB estimates that Trump's tax cuts, tariffs, and other proposals would increase Social Security's 10-year cash shortfall by roughly $2.3 trillion through 2035. The organization concluded that these policies would cause Social Security's trust funds to run out of money in 2031 -- three years earlier than currently projected by the Congressional Budget Office.