We're seeing evidence of the evaporation of trump support in the closing days -- evaporation that was the most likely way things would go -- as people who planned to vote for him procrastinated, and then ultimately found (or are finding) they just can't stomach it.

This doesn't mean we've won. Overconfidence is a GOTV killer. Particularly when we see the barriers and hurdles that will be erected: long lines, faulty equipment in democratic leaning demographics. Someone standing in a two hour line who thinks "she's winning anyway," is more likely to give up.

Harris needs the vote of every person leaning her way; every single one.

As Simon Rosenberg says, we are winning, but we haven't won yet. Anything can happen. We've gotta hold steady and turn out every vote possible if we're to win in this final stretch.