On a blistering cold Christmas Eve in 2023, the Broncos attempted to keep their playoff hopes alive against the New England Patriots when Sean Payton got carried away. Denver's head coach was ultra-aggressive during the final stages of the game, burning timeouts and giving the Patriots the chance to march down the field to convert a game-winning field goal.
A year later in Los Angeles, the Broncos once again faced a high-stakes situation. And once again, Payton went too far.
Sure, you can blame the seven penalties or Denver's inability to cover the middle of the field for its 34-27 loss to the Chargers. But with the Broncos eyeing an opportunity to end their eight-year playoff drought, Payton gave L.A. an opening.
After Denver totaled 73 yards on 11 carries in its first two drives, both ending touchdowns, the Broncos abandoned the ground game. Up by 11 points with 41 seconds to go in the first half, Payton elected to throw the ball on back-to-back plays deep in his own territory. Bo Nix's first attempt resulted in a 3-yard loss, while the second pass to running back Javonte Williams was incomplete. Denver's three-and-out led to a punt, a 15-yard interference penalty on cornerback Tremon Smith and an obscure fair-catch free kick from kicker Cameron Dicker -- the start of a 24-6 Chargers run to close out the game.
In two seasons as Denver's head coach, Payton's aggressiveness has been a gift and a curse. While there are times he has used that mindset to his advantage, there have also been moments when it has cost his team, leading to head-scratching in-game decisions, especially in big moments.
Players have said on multiple occasions how they love when Payton gets aggressive and takes risks. It's a sign of trust between the coach and his players. That was noticeable earlier in the season against Tampa Bay when Payton's offense pounced on the Buccaneers early. Nix completed a 22-yard back-shoulder throw to Sutton on the very first play of the game, then dropped the ball near the sideline to Josh Reynolds for a 31-yard gain. Four plays later, Nix crossed the goal line for a 3-yard rushing touchdown that sparked a commanding 26-7 win.
In Week 9's loss against the Ravens, Payton had wide receiver Courtland Sutton throw a touchdown pass to Nix despite tight coverage. And Nix's best throw of the season wouldn't have happened if Payton didn't trust the rookie signal caller to thread the needle between a pair of defenders to wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. for a 93-yard touchdown in the Monday night win over Cleveland in Week 13.
At the same time, there's another side to all of those gambles. Against the Ravens, Denver faced fourth-and-4 to start the second quarter when Nix took a deep shot at rookie Troy Franklin instead of a more conservative attempt at a first down. Even in victories, Payton tried to do a little too much and burned his team. With the Broncos clinging to a six-point lead in the fourth quarter against the Browns, Nix had no business launching a bomb to Mims on first-and-10. The resulting interception put Denver at risk. "That was my fault, that call was not good," Payton admitted afterward.
In Week 15 against the Colts, the Broncos faced a third-and-1 near midfield against one of the league's worst run defenses. Instead of running the ball, Nix's play-action throw to Sutton was intercepted by cornerback Samuel Womack III.
On Thursday, Denver took a 21-10 lead in the second after rookie Devaughn Vele's touchdown catch. The Broncos' following offensive possession, Nix dropped back four straight times. He scrambled for 15 yards, was sacked for an 8-yard loss, threw a 12-yard pass to Sutton short of the first down, and on third down, threw an incompletion.
Considered a brilliant offensive mind, Payton gives off the vibe of someone who walks in and immediately thinks they are the smartest person in the room. That confidence and self-belief have helped turn Denver into a winning club on the cusp of making the playoffs. Knowing when to rein that in will be critical during the final two weeks of the season.