There was no mystery surrounding this Patriots' loss.
It was plain and simple.
The Dolphins took back the win they had served up on a silver platter and beat the Patriots with their own run-first, bend-but-don't-break formula in a 15-10 finish. A finesse Miami team wore down Jerod Mayo's team with 193 rushing yards and 10 extra minutes of offensive possession, then sat back and watched Jacoby Brissett and Co. unravel in the final moments. Brissett's longest completion was his last and his worst: a 25-yarder to Hunter Henry inbounds and short of the end zone that ended the game since the Patriots were out of timeouts.
Call it the final stroke on a masterpiece of mental mistakes. Most of the rest were on coaching, like the Pats' dozen penalties, play-calling and poor clock management at the end of the first half.
Sitting at 1-4, there's now just one question: how much can the Patriots fix?
Because the talent is the talent. It's bad and unchanging. Most Sundays, the Pats will be at a significant disadvantage, the cost of losing several past offseasons in both free agency in the draft. The Texans have already been slated as 7-point road favorites for this weekend, and that spread might grow.
Houston's defense just held perennial MVP candidate Josh Allen to nine completions in a win over the Bills. What might the Texans do to Brissett? Or Drake Maye, if he makes his first NFL start? And what can the Patriots do for them?
Finding solutions starts with digging into the film. Here's what the film revealed about the Pats' latest loss:
Notes: After taking sacks on his first two dropbacks, Brissett looked skittish against pressure, which cost the Patriots yards on their opening possessions. He eventually settled in, but failed to see the field as clearly as he did in Weeks 1 and 2 and had a couple bad misses, particularly downfield. Both factors contributed to his season-worst 65.5% accurate throw percentage, as did spotty footwork.
Often, once Brissett's preferred targets were covered over the middle, he had a hard time hurting Miami outside the numbers, where he went 5-of-10 for 55 yards. The Dolphins usually blanketed those outside receivers, as well. No surprise, Brissett's longest completions before the final drive were both passes over the middle (where he operates best) to DeMario Douglas (his best receiver).
That's where Brissett should live moving forward, hitting quick concepts with 10 yards of the line of scrimmage or play-action shots to the intermediate and deep levels. But that is contingent on Brissett pulling the trigger, something he didn't do Sunday while anticipating pressure on a couple third downs where Douglas crossed his line of vision or didn't even have time to get his quarterback's attention because Brissett had already dumped it off.
Brissett owns a 105.3 passer rating over the short middle this season, per Pro Football Focus. That fell to 76.4 against Miami, which more or less explains his performance. Now, two final notes.
No. 1: not all blame belongs to Brissett. In every game this season, the Patriots have allowed him to get hit or hurried on more than 40% of his dropbacks, which continued Sunday thanks to new center Nick Leverett's seven pressures allowed. As bad as Brissett was, it's hard to work the middle when you face regular interior pressure, and he did hit a couple nice throws in the process of getting hit.
No. 2: the receivers must do separate against man coverage. Brissett finished 5-of-13 for 57 yards versus man-to-man, and the Patriots have only 10 completions in their last three games against 1-on-1 coverage. Unacceptable.
Despite the overwhelming benefits of blocking a field goal, watching your opponent snap the ball over its quarterback's head to kill a scoring drive and a 2-0 turnover margin, the Patriots couldn't overcome their losses in other key battlegrounds.
Steady Miami pressure clearly affected Brissett, especially on third down, and the Patriots failed to score a touchdown on either red-zone trip. Offensively, the Dolphins also did a much better job staying on schedule, as shown by their success rate. Miami also had a higher rate of explosive plays up until they allowed the Patriots' final two completions, the latter of which they happily gave up because it ended the game.
All in all, despite committing the game's biggest blunders, the Dolphins out-played Mayo's crew because the Patriots owned all the little mistakes (12 penalties) in between.
Personnel breakdown: 62% of snaps in 11 personnel, 38% snaps in 12 personnel.***
Personnel production: 38% success rate in 11 personnel, 24% success rate in 12 personnel.
Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt went away from the run at the end of both halves, questionable calls that cost the Patriots yards, if not points. His greatest error was pulling away from the run from 11 personnel, which produced a 62.5% success rate and separate rushes of 24, 10, 10, eight and six yards. Meanwhile, the Pats had a dismal 26.5% success rate when passing from three-receiver sets.
Translation: the offense held a major advantage when running from light personnel, and rarely used it.
It's worth noting game script forced Van Pelt's hand at times, in that the Patriots got flagged for five offensive holding penalties, which backed them into obvious passing situations. He also unlocked a successful deep play-action shot from midfield, something opponents consistently denied in Weeks 1-4. But Brissett overshot it.
The Patriots could have afforded Brissett a couple more of these bootleg shots, considering both tackles held up fairly well in pass protection. Instead, Van Pelt kept Brissett in a standard dropback pass plan, and he got battered by hits and hurries from the interior. Overall, the Pats frequently fell behind the chains because of penalties and an abysmal first-down passing performance.
That mostly falls on coaching; from fundamentals to game-planning and play-calling.
Broken tackles: RB Rhamondre Stevenson 5, RB Antonio Gibson, WR DeMario Douglas
Pressure allowed: C Nick Leverett 7 (sack, 2 QB hits, 4 hurries), Team 4 (sack, 3 hurries), RT Demontrey Jacobs 3 (3 hurries), RG Mike Onwenu 2 (2 QB hits), QB Jacoby Brissett (QB hit)
Personnel breakdown: 67% three-safety nickel package, 13% three-corner nickel, 13% dime, 7% base.****
Defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington needed a game like this, even if Miami's offense without Tua Tagovailoa is mostly harmless. Covington nailed both the personnel usage (a problem at San Francisco) and the coverage plan.
The Patriots wisely lived out of a mix of single-high and two-deep zone coverage, which allowed defenders to keep an eye on mobile quarterback Tyler Huntley and not run ragged against Miami's constant motion. When they blitzed, the Pats often sent a defensive back, another wise move to match speed with speed considering Huntley's legs. And good news: the blitz is back!
The Patriots produced their highest defensive success rate when blitzing this season, another function of facing a bad Dolphins offense and well-timed calls by Covington. From a personnel standpoint, the Pats worked mostly out of three-safety personnel, a risk given Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers were out, but youngsters Dell Pettus and Marte Mapu delivered. More on Mapu later.
Interceptions: CB Christian Gonzalez
Pressure: DL Daniel Ekuale 3 (half-sack, 2 hurries), DL Jaquelin Roy 2 (sack, hurry), OLB Joshua Uche 2 (sack, hurry), OLB Anfernee Jennings (half-sack), DL Keion White (QB hit), LB Jahlani Tavai (DL Jeremiah Pharms Jr. (hurry), LB Christian Elliss (hurry)
Missed tackles: Mapu 2, S Jaylinn Hawkins 2, LB Jahlani Tavai 2, DL Keion White, DL Deatrich Wise, LB Raekwon McMillan, DL Jeremiah Pharms, Gonzalez
Sure, he missed two tackles. And his run defense was unimposing. But this debut was more than anyone could have expected.
LG Michael Jordan
The Patriots may have found something in the 6-foot-6, ex-Bengal and Panther. Jordan posted a clean sheet in pass protection, plowed open rushing lanes for Stevenson and Gibson and was one of two O-lineman not whistled for a penalty.
C Nick Leverett
Post-game, Leverett took full accountability for the worst individual pass-protecting performance of the young season. That performance included seven pressures allowed, plus a questionable false start and a definite holding penalty.
DL Keion White
Since his hot start, the bar has been raised for the Patriots' new best pass rusher, and White hasn't sniffed it. He took two dumb penalties for 30 yards on the same that led to a Miami field goal in the third quarter. White also missed a tackle.
TE Hunter Henry
Henry had as many penalties in the final 2:10 of a close game as he did catches. Inexcusable mental mistakes from a core veteran and new captain.
*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards.
**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.
***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 13 personnel = one running back, three tight ends; 21 = two halfbacks, one tight end.