Joey Logano hit the jackpot at Las Vegas Motor Speedway last weekend! We cashed our 19-1 race winning ticket and retained 12-1 value for him to win the NASCAR Cup Series Championship this season.
Now, it's time to head to Homestead-Miami Speedway where I'll hopefully continue our winning ways in the Round of 8.
Kyle Larson is the clear favorite to win this edition of the Straight Talk Wireless 400 with a price of +330. In this race last season and other times at Homestead, the No. 5 car has been the one to beat. But, even though Larson may be the best driver in the world, he is not invincible.
Learning from what happened last year, +330 is way too low of a price for any driver to win a race.
Instead, I'm looking at others who are great at "ripping the fence" at this 1.5-mile track to pull off the victory.
The Toyota camp has been fast at all intermediate ovals this season. I expect that to continue, especially after Christopher Bell's dominating performance at Las Vegas.
Bell led 155 laps and finished in second place last week in Sin City. He's +600 to win this weekend and I love that value for him to get redemption. At stake is capturing the Homestead trophy in back-to-back years, locking himself in to the Championship 4.
Tyler Reddick is another driver I have my eye on. Posting around the same +600 number as Bell, Sunday (Oct. 27) could be the No. 45's last chance to make it to Phoenix.
With the Toyota drivers feeling the love from betting markets, one strategy I like to maximize profit is utilizing the race-winning manufacturer.
For instance, any Toyota to win the race outright is +150. If you allocate your units properly, we can get that and still defend our play with drivers to win that aren't Toyota, like Ryan Blaney at 10-1 or William Byron at 8-1 to win outright.
There's some value in the top-10 market as well this week! Check out Austin Dillon at +400 for a top-10 finish. He has three in the last four races here at Homestead and is one of my favorite sneaky plays. Dillon told me he is really excited about going to this track, looking to end a disappointing season with Richard Childress Racing on a high note.
Be sure to tune in to Through The Gears wherever you get your podcasts or watch the full show on Frontstretch's YouTube channel below!
Best of luck and if you have any NASCAR Betting questions, feel free to reach out to me on social media at @tinopattigno.