Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Luis Castillo is pictured in the dugout before a game against the New York Mets on Aug. 11 at T-Mobile Park. / Steven Bisig-Imagn Images
The Seattle Mariners are in a precarious situation that was difficult not to see coming.
When the MLB Winter Meetings were coming to a close, there was increased chatter surrounding the trade availability of Mariners' veteran starting pitcher, Luis Castillo.
The main reports involved a potential deal with Seattle and the Boston Red Sox that would have sent first baseman Triston Casas to the Pacific Northwest.
There were some conflicting reports on Day 3 of Winter Meetings about Castillo's trade status. Some reports said that him getting moved was all but a certainty (despite his no-trade clause) and others said that the Mariners were still hesitant on breaking up the rotation, but were listening to more calls.
There were also reports saying Seattle was getting more calls about Castillo's availability on the heels fellow pitcher Max Fried's eight-year, $218 million deal with the New York Yankees and Garrett Crochet getting traded to the Red Sox.
The Winter Meetings ended without a trade being made for Castillo, but that doesn't mean a deal is completely off the table.
But the whole saga involving the three-time All-Star just highlights what an unfortunate situation Seattle is in. And it's one of its own making.
Seattle Times writer Ryan Divish made a post on "X" (formerly known as Twitter), which offered some empathy to fans watching the rumors unfold in real time:
"It is unfortunate -- and depressing for fans -- that the Mariners have reached a point where a move like this seems necessary due to lack of resources invested into the MLB team.
You build this outstanding rotation and then have to consider breaking it up to get other needed pieces instead of just investing more and getting better by addition without subtraction."
There's a possibility that the Mariners don't trade Castillo at all and keep the rotation together for 2025. There's also a chance that the organization makes it a six-man rotation depending on how successful their pitch for Roki Sasaki goes. Divish also reported that Seattle was hoping to get a deal done with veteran first baseman and 2024 Gold Glove winner Carlos Santana sometime in the next week.
But the Castillo rumors highlight a very depressing reality for fans of the team; a reality that Divish touched on in his "X" post: there's hardly a scenario where the Mariners get significantly better without breaking up the starting rotation.
Players like Alex Bregman, Christian Walker and Pete Alonso are all legitimate difference-making players. But all three of those players are set to earn north of $20 million a year in free agency.
The Mariners have an estimated $15-20 million available in roster payroll, meaning all three of those players are out of Seattle's spending range.
The Mariners could clear up payroll to sign one of those players by moving off Castillo. And there lies the problem.
Seattle has handcuffed itself with its payroll situation. It's been complacent spending like a lower mid-market team instead of the upper mid-market club it actually is. And now the only way the Mariners can make legitimate difference-making moves is by trading a starting pitcher. And it shouldn't be that way.
Seattle was the only team in the majors last season that had four pitchers start 30 or more games. The rotation has featured three All-Stars in the past two seasons in Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. There's not reason the club shouldn't be trying to sign at least one of Bregman, Walker or Alonso. Signing one of them would place the team's 2025 payroll at around $165-170 million, which would have ranked 13th-15th in the majors in payroll in 2024, according to Spotrac.
Mariners President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto called the idea of trading a starter "plan z" on the list of ways the team would prefer to improve.
Seattle is now at the end of the alphabet.
If the Mariners hope to sign a high-end free agent, they need to free up salary. And that likely means trading Castillo.
If they want to acquire an All-Star-caliber player like Casas, Alec Bohm or Nico Hoerner, they need to trade a starting pitcher.
If Seattle holds true to keeping the rotation, then great. If it manages to sign Sasaki, great again. But it also likely means that the offense likely isn't improving by a more-than-marginal amount in 2025.
This is the corner that the team has trapped themselves in. The Mariners' unnecessary payroll restraints mean that the club either has to break up the best starting rotation in baseball, or have another offseason where they make a variety of uninspiring transactions.
It shouldn't be that way. But it is.
FORMER MARINERS RELIEVER SIGNS WITH WHITE SOX ON MINOR LEAGUE DEAL: The Mercyhurst College product spent the better part of five seasons in the Pacific Northwest. CLICK HERE
MARINERS HAVE HAD DISCUSSIONS REGARDING WALKER: The Seattle Mariners have conversed about signing the former Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman. CLICK HERE
MARINERS, BOSTON RED SOX IN TRADE TALKS INVOLVING LUIS CASTILLO: Luis Castillo's time in Seattle might be coming to an end based on several reports. CLICK HERE