Holiday retail sales will grow between 2.5% and 3.5% this year, according to the annual forecast from the National Retail Federation. If achieved, the growth would equate to between $979.5 billion and $989 billion in spending during November and December. Holiday sales in 2023 were $955.6 billion.

A primary contributor to overall retail sales growth is expected from online shopping. Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 8% and 9% to a total of between $295.1 billion and $297.9 billion. This figure is up from $273.3 billion last year. By comparison, last year non-store sales rose 10.7% over 2022.