Higher open interest is considered bullish, but it could trigger sharp corrections in the short term if bitcoin's movements do not align with trader speculations.
Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a crucial price range, one that analysts say will be the first real resistance test. The cryptocurrency surpassed $69,500 on October 21, crushing the level last seen in late July when Bitcoin-friendly U.S. presidential candidates Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy gave highly anticipated speeches at the Nashville Bitcoin Conference.
Despite the sustained upward momentum, there has been growing speculation in the futures market as open interest surges to new highs.
A report by the crypto exchange Bitfinex revealed that market participants are speculating about a correlation between bitcoin's price action and the odds of Trump winning or losing the upcoming U.S. presidential elections.
Analysts said the winning odds appear to be strongly tied to BTC price rallies, suggesting that speculation around his potential victory may have driven most of the recent increases. This correlation intensified since Trump publicly declared potential reforms within the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and possible taxation policies that would favor crypto investors.
"As such, an interplay between political dynamics and cryptocurrency pricing is increasingly evident, with market participants closely monitoring developments in the electoral landscape as they assess future price movements in Bitcoin and other digital assets," analysts said.
Bitcoin was changing hands at $67,500 at the time of writing, just a few thousand dollars away from the important $70,000 level. Sustained spot market interest, driven by macroeconomic tailwinds like the outcome of the elections, could lead to a final breakout from bitcoin's eight-month consolidation range. Contrarily, weak spot demand could trigger another rejection of range highs.
As BTC continues to test its resistance level, global open interest (OI) for perpetual and futures trading pairs is surging to new highs. The metric recently hit $40.38 billion, indicating increasing speculation in the futures market.
While a surge in open interest is often considered a sign of bullish sentiment among investors, Bitfinex analysts insist it could have implications on bitcoin's price dynamics as traders position themselves ahead of potential market movements. Such dynamics could be unhealthy for the market, leading to more volatility and sharp corrections, especially if the speculations do not align with underlying market fundamentals.