Authorities in Mexico have seized over a ton of fentanyl pills in a massive drug bust in Sinaloa. This significant operation highlights the ongoing efforts to combat the illicit drug trade in the region.
With the uncertainty that a new Trump administration will bring and the relative inexperience of the new Mexican president, Americans should keep a close eye on the relationship with our strongest economic ally in the region. Immigration, drug policy and trade are the variables at play, and Mexico's Claudia Sheinbaum needs to show more than tell.
On a personal level, it is unlikely that President-elect Donald Trump will have the "buddy-to-buddy" relationship he had with former Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. While Trump and López Obrador were idological opposites, they had a shared understanding of populist appeal.
Sheinbaum is different. Both her style and technocratic background foretell a more distant rapport. But that doesn't mean there can't be meaningful cooperation.
What has Mexicans worried most is not Trump's immigration policy but the future of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Under a review clause in the USMCA that is coming up in July 2026, countries can confirm if they want to continue or exit the agreement.
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China has been taking advantage of the free trade agreement, with several Chinese companies relocating to northern Mexico, and many Mexican-made products are backed by Chinese capital. Recently, Sheinbaum announced a plan to substitute Chinese parts with locally made ones, an important gesture that indicates Mexico's intent to balance U.S. interests with its own.
But some recent reforms in Mexico that will eliminate certain regulatory and oversight agencies have the U.S. and Canada concerned, since these agencies ensured fair play in the trade relationship.
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Trump recently announced 25% tariffs for Mexican products with his intent to crack down on illegal immigration and drug trafficking. In a pointed but measured letter, Sheinbaum warned the president-elect that tariffs can be answered with tariffs, endangering both countries' economies. ...
"President Trump, migration and drug consumption in the United States cannot be addressed through threats or tariffs," Sheinbaun wrote. "For every tariff, there will be a response in kind, until we put at risk our shared enterprises."
The letter indicates that Sheinbaum intends to be direct with Trump, an approach that comes with its own risks. The economies of both nations are deeply entwined, but Mexico has more to lose.
Meanwhile, Trump is keenly focused on reducing illegal border crossings and pressuring Mexico to do more.
Immigration numbers have been trending down in the last year, and Mexico's efforts had much to do with this. A containment campaign to bus and fly non-Mexican immigrants to southern Mexico has been successful, and analysts believe that these policies, which were the result of pressure from the Biden administration, will only harden under Trump.
In the illegal drug trade, there is much room for improvement. Sheinbaum needs to distance herself from the appeasement policy her predecessor had with the cartels, but she will be walking a tightrope. On the campaign trail, Trump promised military action against the Mexican drug cartels, a bridge America should not cross.
After Sheinbaum's letter, the two leaders had a phone conversation, which is a sign of progress. However, they differed on what was said, and it remains to be seen whether Sheinbaum can diplomatically navigate a tricky dynamic with Trump.
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