After another fantastic race at Kansas Speedway, the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs rolls into "Sweet Home Alabama" this weekend.
Talladega Superspeedway has definitely been circled by the 12 remaining drivers eligible to win a championship for a while. This place has been known to wreak absolute havoc in determining who advances to the next round and who doesn't for many, many years.
Teams who weren't fortunate enough to advance out of the Round of 16, and those who were never there to begin with also have had this race circled, though for a different reason entirely:
Anybody can win at Talladega.
Keep that in mind when assembling your lineups for this week, for sure. Looking back, the last race at the drafting track of Daytona very much had a surprise winner. This week could be no different.
Now, there's no fantasy or betting recap for last week's event at Kansas, but I'll elaborate on that more later. Instead, here's a quick rules breakdown as always.
Drivers will be awarded points based on their finishing position, position differential, fastest laps and laps led. The driver who wins the race scores 45 fantasy points, while second gets 42 points, third gets 41 points and so on, at least through the top 10. The 11th-place finisher scores 32 points, 21st gets 21 points and 31st gets 10 points.
However many spots drivers lose or gain on the track are added to or subtracted from their score. Then, if the driver leads a lap, they will earn 0.25 points for each lap led and 0.45 points for each fastest lap.
Once again, we find ourselves in the defending champion's playground.
Blaney has quickly become one of the most prolific drivers to ever compete at Talladega, compiling some unbelievable statistics.
He has three career wins (including this very race last season), as well as a career average finish at Talladega of 14.8. That's pretty impressive for such an unpredictable track. Blaney didn't perform very well here in the spring, but he most often runs better in the fall anyway.
All my numbers are showing No. 12 is the man to beat this weekend.
2. Chase Elliott ($9,500)
Driver No. 9 escaped Kansas last weekend above the cutline after an abysmal practice session that saw his engine expire. After finishing ninth, he also has momentum rolling his way at one of his best tracks.
Elliott's two career wins here are important to note when justifying this pick, but even more so, his average finish. He boasts a 13.7 career average finish at a place that, again, is a bit of a slot machine in a proverbial casino.
One thing that does concern me is that Elliott crashed out at Daytona International Speedway in August, the site of the most recent superspeedway race on a track
3. Tyler Reddick ($9,000)
Reddick's first win of 2024 came here in the spring, which is more than enough reason to pick him here in this slot. But...
He's struggled a little to open this round of the playoffs. That makes me a bit wary. He currently sits below the cut line, despite winning the regular season championship.
I believe he will bring home solid fantasy points regardless of all the pressure he likely feels heading into this race.
4. Alex Bowman ($7,600)
Listen, it can't be denied any long that Bowman is a contender for this championship.
The Ally No. 48 Chevrolet has been a mainstay at the front since the playoffs opened a few weeks ago. For that reason, you absolutely have to sign him this week.
He's not had a spectacular record at Talladega in particular, but I predict his great runs will continue. Even if his car is tattered and taped up at the end of proceedings Sunday, he's worth it.
5. Daniel Suarez ($7,400)
Suarez has been another wonderful surprise in the playoffs this season, but a lot of pundits out there believe this is as far as he will go.
I beg to differ on that. The No. 99 has shown a lot of speed on drafting tracks this season, including picking up a win in the spring race at Atlanta and a runner-up finish at the same track a few weeks ago.
Suarez, like Bowman, has a very pedestrian record at this famously persnickety racetrack. Maybe a bit of recency bias is at play with these picks.
6. Erik Jones ($6,200)
Legacy Motor Club has had very little to smile about this season.
Their teams have raced miserably; John Hunter Nemechek sits last in points this season, Jimmie Johnson has no finish better than 28th in his part-time schedule and the season has fallen well short of expectations for everyone all around.
I don't know why. I don't know what it is in my gut, but I predict a good week for Jones and company.
Now, to put that into perspective, I think a top-20 run would qualify as just that for this team, and those positions carry fantasy points with them just like the rest.
That's all for this week. Like I said earlier, there was no betting last weekend for me, because I had no electricity, and didn't until Wednesday due to Hurricane Helene. I'm thankful though, because a whole lot of others in the states that neighbor mine have it much worse.
I encourage you, if you feel so inclined, to donate something to these people in need. Whether that be money from winnings, or just your time to help, please do so. The racing community is just that, a community, and when people need us, we tend to come together like none other to aid that cause. There should be links below to help you do just that.
Thank you in advance folks, and good luck this weekend.