The race to develop the first fifth generation stealth fighters
Abraham Abrams is an expert in East Asian military affairs and security holding a masters degree in War Studies from King's College London, with a thesis on PLA modernisation, as well as a Masters in East Asian International Relations. After years studying China's defence sector and major weapons programs, as well as the rise of its tech sector and industries more broadly, Abrams concluded that the J-20 program marked a major turning point in the country's military and technological standings with tremendous geopolitical and security implications.
He has published two books on the subject, including J-20 Mighty Dragon: Asia's First Stealth Fighter in the Era of China's Military Rise with Helion & Company, and the longer title China's Stealth Fighter: The J-20 'Mighty Dragon' and the Growing Challenge to Western Air Dominance with Pen & Sword. The book was assessed in Taiwan to be of particular significance, and accordingly saw publication in translation in Taipei expedited for a release seven months before the English language editions.
The United States and Soviet Union began a race to develop the first and most capable fifth generation stealth fighters in the late 1970s. The Cold War's end, however, was followed by both a near total collapse of Russian efforts and major cuts and delays to American programs. This provided an opening for a rising and fast modernising Chinese defence industry to position its own ambitious program to produce a world leading fighter jet with next generation capabilities.
The turning point in the balance of power between China and the United States
The J-20 program has epitomised China's rise from a laggard in combat aviation into a world leader, with the new books detailing the fighter's technologies, capabilities, production timeline, design priorities, roles, evolution, and the units and locations where it has been deployed. Also detailed are the ways other countries have responded to it, and how the last 30 years of China's industrial and technology sector's modernisation positioned the country to produce what may well now be the world's top air superiority fighter.
The J-20 program is the most high-profile indicator of a turning point in the balance of power between China and the United States, with the books' assessment of the history of Chinese air superiority capabilities, and how the Korean War in particular has influenced the country to place a very strong emphasis on the need to field a leading fighter for air-to-air combat, thus providing an important deeper understanding of the program.
Important context to understanding the J-20's significance is the parallel development of supporting assets from aerial tankers to electronic warfare planes, which is also explored in detail. The program is also shown to have had a particularly significant influence in the United States, ranging from placing discourse on the F-35's modernisation and on sixth generation fighter development in an entirely new context, to stimulating the formation of new counter-stealth aggressor training units, development of new air-to-air missiles, and the acquisition of E-7 'flying radar' aircraft among many other responses to the new challenge.
In November, The Aviation Geek Club asked its readers to submit questions about the J-20 Mighty Dragon. We submitted them to Abrams.
This post features the final 4 answers. Click here and here to read the first and second part of the Q&A with Abrams.
JH-7 successor
- Will there be a long range attack version to replace some of the others in the size/class, such as the JH-7?
This possibility is explored extensively in my two recent books on the J-20, and particularly in my longer book published with Pen & Sword. The development of a new medium-range stealth bomber in China has been reported by the U.S. Defence Intelligence Agency since the late 2010s, and as the JH-7 fleet ages there would be strong arguments to develop a J-20-derived aircraft into a successor. Developing the J-20 into a bomber or strike fighter would have a number of significant benefits compared to developing a separate clean aircraft, including allowing for a much larger production run of J-20 and J-20-derived aircraft and increasing commonality across the fleet.
Such a program could follow a similar course to the FB-22 program considered to develop the F-22 into a bomber, which had reduced acceleration, speed, and maneuverability, but could carry 375 per cent the ordnance of the original F-22 and 80 percent more fuel. Another notable precedent for the development of an air superiority fighter into a strike fighter is the Soviet Su-27IB, which later became the Russian Su-34 - a less manoeuvrable derivative of the Su-27 that is approximately 50 percent heavier and has a much longer range and larger weapons carrying capacity.
While there having been no indications that the J-20 is intended to be developed into a specialised strike variant, it remains a significant possibility, and one that may materialise later on in the program as the air force's priority demand for more air superiority fighters is met.
Supercruise capability
A major obstacle may be the argument that unmanned options, such as the newly unveiled CH-7 stealth platform, can perform strike roles more effectively and at a much lower cost, while other assets such as hypersonic glide vehicles compete for funding for new air to surface systems.
- Does the J-20 have supercruise capability?
China is reported to have ordered 40 pairs of AL-31 engines from Russia for the J-20, and approximately this number of J-20s from initial batches are not believed to be able to supercruise. The ability to super cruise was reported as enhanced variants with indigenous WS-10 engines entered service from 2021. Later variants are expected to be able to supercruise at much higher speeds, likely close to or exceeding Mach 2, once the WS-15 engine is introduced likely in 2025 or 2026.
WS-15 engine
- How reliable are is WS-15, what are the differences compared to the original engines, and how is that significant?
Modern Chinese turbofan engines achieved a major milestone in the late 2010s when they began to be used to equip single engine J-10 fighters, which lacked engine redundancy and indicated a high degree of confidence that the WS-10 powering them was dependable. While the performance and reliability of the WS-10 have improved tremendously over the past 15 years, the WS-15's performance is expected to be far superior still, with its lifetime and time between overhauls being considerably longer.
The WS-15 is a clean sheet engine design, rather than an evolution of the WS-10. Its weight/thrust ratio was expected to be between 0.09 and 0.1, compared to 0.11 for the F-22's F119, making it more efficient than any prior powerplant used by a twin engine fighter. Its expected maximum thrust of 18.4 tons will make it five percent more powerful than the F119, and almost 13 percent more powerful than the WS-10C currently powering the J-20. Some of the features distinguishing the new engine from its predecessors are its single crystal superalloy turbine blades and powder metallurgy superalloy turbine disks, the serial production of which reportedly posed particularly significant challenges for the program.
J-20 Vs F-22
- How would the F-22 fare in an air engagement against the J-20?
With the WS-15 engine not yet in frontline service, the F-22 is still more manoeuvrable and faster than the J-20. However, there is a 20 year gap separating the two programs - the first F-22 demonstrator flew in 1990, and the J-20's in 2011. The J-20's design is thus far better attuned to the requirements of warfare in the mid-2020s, with the F-22 lagging behind in a wide range of areas. Material sciences are a notable example, as are avionics. The F-22 lacks helmet mounted sights, meaning it is one of very few fighters to enter service in terms of 21st century incapable of high off boresight targeting - it needs to point its nose at a target to fire on it.
Thus, although it is more manoeuvrable than the currently operational J-20s or than the F-35, it would face a steep disadvantage in visual range combat. The fact that the J-20 and F-35 integrate distributed aperture systems, while plans to integrate such systems onto later production blocks of F-22s were cancelled, further leaves the Raptor at a steep disadvantage in terms of situational awareness.
The F-35 has not infrequently been described as a 'flying computer', with this also applying to the J-20. The F-22 by contrast uses much older computer architecture and a much less advanced sensor suite. The J-20 and F-35 are very much information centric fighters developed with a strong focus on network centric warfare. The F-22 by contrast for years struggled to even pass data to other aircraft with Link 16, and was from the outset behind the times in this aspect of performance.
F-22 advantages over J-20
In an era where fighter on fighter combat is increasingly less relevant to the ability to operate as part of a broader network, the F-22 is seriously constrained in this regard while the J-20 and F-35 are world leaders. The newer fighters would be able to operate much more seamlessly alongside assets such as AEW&Cs, satellites and ground and ship based radar systems to gain a fuller picture of the battlefield and process large amounts of data.
Although significant upgrades have been proposed for a portion of the F-22 fleet, these remain conservative and do not include a new radar, distributed aperture systems, or other subsystems that would bring the aircraft close to the same level as new F-35s or J-20s. Nevertheless, there are aspects of the F-22's performance that are more easily upgradable, and may provide it with advantages over the J-20. One of the most notable is the integration of AIM-260 air-to-air missiles, as while when the J-20 entered service its PL-15 missiles were significantly superior to anything in U.S. service, the AIM-260 was developed specifically in response and may well be superior to the rival Chinese design.
Although the F-22 was developed at a time when material sciences were significantly less advanced, with newer materials developed for the F-35, and likely the J-20, facilitating a superior stealth capability, new stealth coatings have reportedly continued to be applied to the F-22. If the United States does retain lead over China in the performance of its coatings, which is possible, then this may help to compensate for the advantages the J-20's newer design grants it.
J-20 advantages over F-22
A fundamental difference between the F-22 and J-20 programs is that the F-22 was developed at a time when American air superiority was not expected to be seriously challenged, leading the Air Force to lean towards a more conservative design while cuts to planned subsystems were made throughout the 1990s. The J-20, by contrast, was developed in the aftermath of the demonstration of American air superiority in Operation Desert Storm, and at a time when the U.S. was expected to produce a fifth generation air superiority fighter over a long production run as it had with the F-15 and F-4.
Where the F-22 was considered conservative, particularly compared to the proposed YF-23, and when unveiled was described as a "more angular looking F-15," the J-20 had a much more radical and revolutionary design. The most conspicuous example is its unique combination of a lifting body, side wings, and canards, which according to the fighter's designer Yang Wei were intended to provide an optimal supersonic and manoeuvring flight capabilities and an excellent stealth performance. The design reduced supersonic drag through use of a smaller wing.
Where the F-22's predecessor the F-15 saw its design revised and funding increased to meet much more ambitious performance requirements, due to serious concerns regarding the demonstrated capabilities of the Soviet MiG-25, the F-22 itself was developed at a time of complacency. The J-20, much like the F-15, was developed at a time when rival powers were seen to have a strong lead in the capabilities of their top air superiority aircraft, which combined with the fact that it was developed much later than the F-22 places it in a strong position to retain an advantage.